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A shares into the consolidation phase electronic appliances, and other short-term bullish Qiuwen

Number of visits: Date:2016-9-23 23:15

Central conclusion: the maintenance of "word at the head steady" point of view, the end of June to support domestic and international market prices warmer policy challenges, the market entered a consolidation phase. 2005 Shanghai Composite Index to a weekly average amplitude of 5.2% this year to 3% in April, 1.9% in the past five weeks. References History, the need to expand external shock interval, the Fed's interest rate policy concern, variable RMB exchange rate reform. Historical performance comparison, A shares in the long term than other major asset classes. Striving for short-term operation, performance is king, such as valuation and performance better match consumer electronics, aquaculture feed, food and beverage, household appliances and so on.
Sound is on
On Wednesday trading the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.47%, the GEM Index futures fell 2.65%, Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.87%. The market fell last week, the Shanghai Composite Index once breakdown 3,000 points, the market fears gradually increased. Future domestic and international policy environment is more complex, the continuation of last week's Weekly "word at the head steady" point of view, the evolution from the road to go ahead careless driving sections for the sound on the recommended actions.
1. The market entered a consolidation phase
Policy environment variable increases, the market entered a consolidation phase. Since the end of January, we have been emphasizing the mid-market city into the shock stage, short-term point of view there are several adjustments, the end point 12638 "A shares bottomed out yet? When "optimistic, April 17 3100 near the" selling? "To be cautious, the end of June" Balance multi-tendency "to see more clearly again. Changes in short-term view of the core logic is judged dynamic changes in the economy and policies. After the June 24 referendum on Britain off Europe, US stocks hit a record high, the British stock index approaching a record high, the Shanghai Composite Index rose to 3140 points from 2800 points, is the core driving force of domestic and foreign policy stage warmer environment, the need to follow closely future policy trend. At present, the domestic and international policy environment variable increases, the market is facing increasing challenges. US September CPI data released on the 16th of slightly more than expected in August CPI rose 1.1% higher than the expected 1% and the core CPI rose 2.3% higher than the expected 2.2%, the current interest rate futures market implied by the Fed in September 21 rate hike probability is 12%, but in December rate hike of up to 55% probability, is expected to raise interest rates during the year. Domestic policy environment has become more challenging, this year the domestic macroeconomic policy has been steady growth, adjust the structure between the swing low growth figures slightly loose policy, price data of high politics policy tight. Although the August CPI up to 1.3%, but in September jumped pressure, in addition to the base period factor, the new price factors significantly, agricultural products (000061, stock it) wholesale prices, for example, in August year on year -4.3% MoM 2.5% in September to -0.5%, 3.8%, respectively. In addition, we can track the policy is expected according to the bond market, stock and bond markets this year, stronger linkage, the bond market's leading stock market, rather than the seesaw, description of the stocks in terms of debt, liquidity and policy environment is more important variables that affect, rather than fundamentals. CSI Bond Index fell slightly after the recent go flat, indicating marginal policy easing is expected to enter the bottleneck.
Up of a brain deep fall, the moment need not worry about the crash. Recalling the 15 June to 4 times a visible decline, down deep are derived from the early rise high, and there is a clear top-down bad there, 15 years June 15, in mid-August, the beginning of 16, 16 years before the market fell in mid-April, the biggest gain in the Shanghai Composite Index (after the biggest decline) were 70% (- 35%), 24% (- 32%), 29% (-28%), 17% (- 10%) GEM refers were 137% (- 41%), 29% (- 38%), 64% (- 34%), 27% (- 15%), the median stock was 142% (- 55% ), 51% (- 40%), 82% (- 40%), 39% (- 20%). Look at this, since the end of June, the Shanghai Composite Index rose only 10.2% maximum, GEM refers to only 9.2%, in the absence of deterioration in the macro background bad there, do not be too worried about short-term slump. Compare 15 June to 4 times a day of ups and downs stop early fall when the number of stocks fell, June 15, August 18, January 4, April 18 limit-down stocks (stocks daily limit), respectively, the number of 107 (129), 1585 (25), 1318 (31), 80 (25), while that of September 12 plunged limit-down stocks (stocks daily limit) number 17 (20), in terms of quantity or up limit the proportion of point of view, is smaller than the history, the market is not particularly panic, it is also no need to worry too much about the crash.
   2. The need to expand external shock interval
Compare past history, present in a narrow range of shocks. To measure market volatility, we will be based on the highest point of the index / lowest point -1 calculated amplitude. Shanghai Composite Index since 2005 monthly average amplitude of 12.7% historical average amplitude of the week was 5.2%, while since April this year, the monthly average amplitude of 5.7%, weekly mean amplitude of 3.0%, August 15 to September 9, Shanghai Composite is within a narrow range around 3100 points, the highest 3140 points, the lowest point of 3042. For 12 years, the same history twice within a narrow range, respectively, for 13 years from January to May and October 13 --14 June, 13 years 1-- monthly mean amplitude of 6.2% in May, the weekly average amplitude 3.4%; 13 October - monthly average amplitude of 14 June was 6.3%, weekly mean amplitude of 2.9%. Historically the two are in a narrow range of macro fundamentals and liquidity is relatively stable period of this year, "A shares bottomed out yet? -20,160,128 "," With a telescope to see, A shares at what stage? -20,160,408 "," Kam borrow money out of history: the return to the stock market -20,160,421 Game "and other reports we have analyzed that macroeconomic fundamentals and liquidity again stable, the stock market into the game the shock city. This year, market volatility to close the narrow, but also with changes in structure of investors, institutional investors accounted for the rise, the market volatility decline, compared to lower their retail turnover. "Pa Pa Investors a bargaining chip - the depth of excavation -20,160,909 Daily News' analysis, we pointed out that the end of 16 years compared to 15 institutional investors (funds, insurance, social security, private equity, brokerage, R / QFII) shareholding proportion rose 2.4 percentage points to 25%, retail down 2.7 percentage points to 48%.
Expand external shock interval to wait appears. 13 years experienced a fluctuation is five months later, on June 13 Money Shortage makes monthly amplitude highly expanded to 20%; October 13 --14 June experienced a tight range after nine months, on July 14, Zhou Yongkang, to initiate the review, the market is expected to enhance the reform, began to intensify fluctuations, the amplitude is increased monthly in July to 8.3% in November to open the central bank rate cut cycle, easing liquidity become big bull market, 14 July month - May, 2003, the Shanghai Composite Index monthly average amplitude of 12.4%. At present point in time, increase future domestic and foreign policy variables, it is possible to expand the shock interval. Fed rate hike still rhythm track, now the expected rate hike in September was 12% lower, but there is still a large hike in December the probability is 55%, if the Fed's interest rate hikes will have a negative impact on the market, if interest rates may have a positive impact on the market. In addition, in the past two months against the dollar stabilized at 6.6-6.7 yuan / dollar, after October renminbi officially joined the SDR, the exchange rate will remain steady or increased volatility still tracking, September 8, the central bank monetary policy committee Fan Gang in an interview with Bloomberg television interview that "with the long-term strength of the dollar, the Chinese government will appropriate regulation to allow the gradual devaluation of the renminbi," describes the RMB devaluation still there is a big pressure. Prior to bank financing, China Insurance Regulatory Commission and other financial regulators universal insurance provisions also need to track. October eighth session will be held the Sixth Plenary Meeting may discuss issues related to the reform, it will be possible to enhance the market risk appetite, the presence of up variables.
   3. Strategy: the sound of
Optimistic about the long-term, short-term pragmatism. Comparison of the major asset classes in 2000 to 15 years of annual increases, the rate is 5.1% real estate, first-tier cities such as Shanghai annualized increase of 12% 10-year Treasury yield to maturity annualized rate of 3.5 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index It rose 6.1%, a shares (market capitalization weighted) rose to 10.8%, equal annual investment rose 24.9 percent, the same amount of investment rose an annualized 22.0%. On the whole, A shares equal the same amount of investment and annualized rose and bond markets outperformed Rate annualized gains. Even considering the worst case, in five all-time highs (in 2001 the 2245, 2007 6124, 2009 3478, 15 points in 5178), equal to buy all stocks, yields were still holding 168 %, 105%, 128% - 22% of all buying the same amount of stock, return rates were still holding 176%, 58%, 98% - 35%. Last week, short-term maintenance Weekly "word at the head steady" point of view, the end of June "Balance multi-tendency" We have reason for optimism is the domestic and foreign policy of partial song, the current situation facing the future policy challenges are becoming more bold and forward sections of the market from Evolution road to drive carefully, so the operation is more pragmatic moderate some continue to follow closely the policy side movements.
Performance is king, is on steady. "The stock market, in the end earn any money - the US 80-year history as a mirror -20,160,524" in our analysis pointed out that long-term stock price rise is mainly driven by profit, A-share market ups and downs of 90% from the CBBC valuation fluctuations, shock city Valuation continue down, profits support the stock price. Mid-market is still shock pattern, the performance is still an important basis for stock selection. Consumer electronics rose in recent days is better, its performance and valuation Match better net profit up 40%, the current static PE of about 40 times, in addition to Apple's new phone is superimposed global sales popular event-driven, can continue to hold. Animal husbandry (feed aquaculture) sector, although the market has a high position, but reported net profit surge 268%, thus projected full-year net profit as high as 284%, the current PE (TTM) only 25 times, you can continue hold. Also according to the history of the mid-year report net profit over last year accounted projections, annual and mid-year report net profit was more than 15% or nearby, PEG is less than 1.2, the current position in the industry 60% of the historical volatility within the range, such as household appliances, food and beverage.

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